The 2024 elections will mark 2024 as one of the most pivotal years in the annals of global politics. A staggering 60 countries, home to half of the world’s population, are set to engage in this democratic exercise. An astonishing 4 billion individuals are poised to express their political will through various levels of elections, from presidential to local.
This democratic phenomenon displays immense diversity in scale. Take India, for example, which is renowned for its massive, multi-day legislative elections, the largest of its kind globally. Contrast this with Indonesia, where the world’s largest single-day presidential election takes place. Even smaller states like North Macedonia are joining this global event with their presidential elections.
The nature of these elections spans a broad spectrum. Consider Iceland, positioned as the third most democratic nation by the Economist Intelligence Unit, where the presidential election is expected to exemplify fairness and freedom. In stark contrast are nations like North Korea, where the idea of electoral choice is more a notion than a reality, akin to choosing between identical brands of cereal.
Other significant elections, including the closely watched US presidential race, occupy the middle ground of this spectrum. The US, particularly known for its unique Electoral College system, has seen the popular vote winner lose the presidency in two of the last six elections, highlighting the complexity of its democratic mechanisms.
The global electoral landscape in 2024 is as varied as it is influential, covering a vast array of democratic practices. At one end, we see models of democracy in action, like in Iceland, a nation celebrated for its transparent and fair electoral process. Conversely, there are countries like North Korea, where the essence of a free and fair election is largely absent.
The majority of the 2024 elections, including the intensely observed US presidential election, lie between these extremes. The American electoral system, with its intriguing instances of popular vote and Electoral College discrepancies, illustrates the varied nature of democratic systems worldwide.
The importance of these 2024 elections transcends national boundaries. These democratic exercises are pivotal not just for the countries involved but for the entire international community.
2024 elections US
The results hold the power to reshape global alliances, steer economic and environmental policies, and redefine the global power equilibrium. Thus, the 2024 elections odds stand as a critical juncture in world history, capturing global focus and poised to have lasting worldwide repercussions.
Despite facing a series of legal challenges, Donald Trump has unexpectedly taken the lead over Joe Biden in the most recent predictions for the 2024 US Presidential Election. Trump, defying expectations, now leads the presidential race betting market with odds of +120, closely followed by Biden at +200.
Trump’s resilience is noteworthy, especially considering his involvement in a civil fraud trial in New York and his absence from the Republican debates. His rise in popularity is evident as he distances himself from key Republican contenders. Notably, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has seen a significant drop, now ranking seventh with odds of +3,300, even trailing behind Michelle Obama.
As the aftermath of the second Republican presidential debate settles, the race for the 2024 election is becoming more defined. It’s an opportune moment to examine the current odds and assess who stands the strongest chance of securing the presidency in the upcoming election.
Who are the favorites to win in the 2024 election?
Since the start of his term, the candidate campaign positions in 2024 elections US has evolved remarkably. Vice President Kamala Harris initially led with a +350 chance, followed by President Joe Biden at +400, and Donald Trump at +650.
Now, California’s Governor Gavin Newsom has climbed to fourth with a 9.09% chance. Interestingly, former First Lady Michelle Obama, who hasn’t officially declared her candidacy, is in the sixth spot at 2.94%.
Biden has rebounded to second place with a 33.3%, after briefly falling to third, while Harris has plummeted to eighth at 2.44%.
Joe Biden
Joe Biden’s varying prospects in the presidential contest mirror wider political and economic issues. His chances moved from +150 in early September to +200 by November, affected by economic concerns and debates over policies like student debt relief and aid to Ukraine.
Despite a drop in his approval rating to 39.8% from 44% earlier this year, as FiveThirtyEight reports, Biden’s likelihood of re-election has risen to 33.78%, up from 24.39% in January.
This increase seems more tied to confidence in him remaining the Democratic nominee, rather than a boost in personal popularity. The legal troubles of his son Hunter haven’t greatly affected Biden’s position as the Democratic leader.
Traditionally, sitting presidents don’t lose in primary challenges. It looks like the Democrats will follow this pattern with Biden, who is at -250 to be their 2024 candidate, suggesting a 71.43% probability. Interestingly, of the three nearest Democrats in the betting odds, two aren’t planning to run, while the third, Robert Kennedy Jr., may think about an independent campaign.
The 2024 election is gearing up to be a close contest, with both major parties listed at a pick’em price of -110, signaling an evenly balanced race.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s standing in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is robust, notwithstanding his legal challenges. His odds have improved to +120, up from +250 in mid-June, making him a clear favorite for the Republican nomination.
Trump is facing several legal issues, including a civil fraud case in New York involving claims of inflating asset values for loans and insurance benefits. He’s also dealing with charges over handling classified information, secret payments, and actions linked to the 2020 election’s outcome.
On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled Trump ineligible to run under the US Constitution’s insurrection clause, removing him from Colorado’s 2024 primary. Maine made a similar move on December 28, referring to his ongoing election fraud assertions. These decisions, based on post-Civil War rules meant to block former Confederate leaders from power, are being contested by Trump’s team in the US Supreme Court.
Despite these setbacks, Trump’s portrayal as a victim of a political “witch hunt” appears to resonate with his base. His campaign positions about the candidate Donald Trump fundraising saw a spike, with nearly $10 million raised after the dissemination of his mug shot post an August arrest in Fulton County Jail.
Trump’s grip on the GOP base remains solid. A CNN Poll of Polls, averaging five national surveys from September 7-24, indicates Trump leading with 58% among potential Republican primary voters, a significant 43-point margin over Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis.
Trump’s dominant position has led him to bypass Republican Primary debates, with plans to miss the third one as well. He’s even suggested the Republican National Committee cancel all future presidential primary debates, focusing instead on defeating Biden. This approach highlights his confidence and his powerful sway in the Republican Party.
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom’s rise in the 2024 US presidential election odds has been remarkable, climbing from 1.64% to +600 in early fall. As the former (2004-2011) and the current Governor of California since 2019, Newsom has a notable political profile.
Despite this surge, Newsom has previously stated he would not challenge Biden, and there has been no indication of a change in his stance. While he has been actively setting up committees, potentially for fundraising, it seems more plausible that these efforts are in preparation for a 2028 presidential run rather than 2024.
Last year, speculation about Newsom’s candidacy was rife, especially considering the Democrats’ strong performance in the midterms. However, with Smarkets giving him only an 8.3% chance of winning and his continued denial of a 2024 run, betting on him at odds lower than +2,000 is generally not recommended.
Robert Kennedy Jr.
Regarding Robert Kennedy Jr., the 69-year-old environmental lawyer and member of the Kennedy family, his odds have fluctuated significantly. After reaching +900 following a NewsNation town hall in June, his odds have since fallen to +2,000.
Despite early polls and high-profile interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan boosting his national profile, Kennedy’s appeal has been mixed. His controversial opinions have garnered some conservative interest, but he has not been widely embraced by the left.
Kennedy has hinted at a “major announcement” on October 9 2023, leading to speculation about an independent run. While a third-party candidacy typically has little chance of winning the election, Kennedy’s participation could impact the vote distribution between Trump and Biden.
The effect of his candidacy will be intriguing to observe, as Biden’s voters are reportedly less enthusiastic than Trump’s, yet Kennedy’s conspiracy theory leanings might resonate more with the MAGA base.
Ron DeSantis
Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis has had a fluctuating journey in the 2024 U.S. presidential election odds. He started at 1.49%, peaked at 25%, but has recently dropped back to 2.94%.
At the year’s start, DeSantis was a strong contender against Trump and Biden. However, recent 2024 elections polls, like the New York Times/Siena College poll, show Republican voters favoring Trump over DeSantis.
This shift has brought increased scrutiny to DeSantis’ campaign, highlighting some vulnerabilities. In response, his team has reshuffled, including the dismissal of 38 staffers to shift focus to broader national issues.
DeSantis’ main supporters largely overlap with Trump’s MAGA base, who consistently favor the former president over DeSantis. This, coupled with the emergence of other Republicans like Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott, is further dividing DeSantis’ support base, though not affecting Trump’s.
For DeSantis to bounce back, he needs to address issues in Florida effectively and demonstrate his ability to manage national concerns.
Nikki Haley
Meanwhile, Nikki Haley’s presidential race odds have risen from +5,000 to +650. Her strong debate performances and early polling success in New Hampshire and South Carolina have contributed to this rise, putting her ahead of DeSantis in those areas.
Haley, with her background as South Carolina’s Governor and a former UN Ambassador, has a substantial national profile and backing from significant Republican donors. While she’s behind Trump, his recent criticisms of her indicate he considers her a noteworthy opponent.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy, a political novice, initially saw his odds increase to +1,600 after the first Republican primary debates but has since fallen back to 1.49%.
As a billionaire from the pharmaceutical industry with an image of being an intellectual elite, Ramaswamy faces challenges in appealing to the MAGA base and competing with more established Republican figures. His lack of political experience is a notable obstacle in his campaign journey.
Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris has seen her prospects for the 2024 U.S. presidential election significantly wane. Once a front-runner in President Biden’s early term, her odds of winning have now fallen to 2.44%.
On some platforms her likelihood of securing the Democratic nomination stands at just 6.25%, starkly lower than President Biden’s 68.03%. She’s also behind Gavin Newsom (11.11%) and Michelle Obama (7.69%) in the race for the nomination.
Harris’ vice-presidential role has been fraught with challenges, especially in managing key issues like border migration and national voting reform. These complex and politically delicate tasks have negatively influenced her public standing and approval ratings.
The gradual improvement in her public image contrasts with her significantly diminished odds in the presidential race, indicating she has a substantial gap to bridge to emerge as a top contender for the 2024 election.
